Trading Probabilities: A Game of Chance?

In this video, Stuart McPhee, with a simple example, shows why most traders get it wrong when trading. He presents two boxes. You cannot see inside the boxes. But he can tell you that the first box has three marbles in it. Three of them are green and one is red. The other box has only one marble, a green one. If you would have the opportunity to put your hand in one of those boxes and collect only one marble. If you collect the green marble from the first box, Stuart will give you one thousand dollars, but if you collect a red one you will not get anything.

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